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Daily scenario: IWM 2018-08-31

A historical scenario under the stated assumptions. On the day it comes up, everyone gets the same one.

IWM, 2018-08-31: spot $156.69. You are short the $144 put opened at $0.288, now $0.014, 30 DTE. IV 12.3% vs HV 10.7%. Russell 2000 ended August within 1% of the record high it set earlier that month.

  1. AHold the position
  2. BRoll out: same strike, later expiry
  3. CClose the position
  4. DTake profit: buy it back

What would you do?

The answer and the worked numbers for every choice are in the Thetify app.

Where the position stood

UnderlyingIWM
Date2018-08-31
Stock price$156.69
PositionShort the $144 put
Stock vs strike8.8% above the strike (out of the money)
Opened at → now$0.288 → $0.014
Implied volatility (IV)12.3%
Historical volatility (HV)10.7%
Days to expiration30

Under this scenario’s assumptions. Every number in this table is already in the scenario text above; nothing comes from what happened afterwards.

Run these numbers yourself

Open the calculator with this scenario’s price, strike, days, IV and HV already typed in, and read the premium, delta and probabilities for yourself. The calculator leaves out dividends, so its readings can differ slightly from the scenario’s own.

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Terms in this scenario

Same kind of decision

Three more scenarios of the same kind: managing a short put.

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